Preparing for War?: Moscow Facing an Arc of Crisis

This Letort Paper explores Russian state mobilization. It first frames how Moscow sees the world and then turns to explore the range of measures that the Russian leadership is implementing to address a series of threats, both real and perceived, as well as numerous internal challenges. These are emergency measures, tantamount to putting the country onto a war footing. It has been plain for some time that the world is seen very differently by policymakers in Washington, D.C. and Moscow. However, the differences are becoming evermore stark as the United States-and many of its allies-and Moscow increasingly drawn different conclusions from the same bodies of evidence. This is true whether the topic is Euro-Atlantic security issues, such as NATO enlargement, missile defense, or-most notably-Ukraine, or whether the security questions are further afield, such as the wars in Libya and Syria. The Russian view contains a multiplicity of challenges, from the potential for war to erupt, to instability in the aftermath of U.S.-led wars of regime change. Many in the Russian leadership are particularly concerned about the possibility of such a regime change campaign being conducted against Russia itself. Russian President Vladimir Putin and others in the leadership circle have been explicit that they see events in Libya, Syria, and Ukraine in this light, and that Russia must learn lessons from these developments.