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Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall

-15% su kodu: ENG15
122,52 
Įprasta kaina: 144,14 
-15% su kodu: ENG15
Kupono kodas: ENG15
Akcija baigiasi: 2025-03-03
-15% su kodu: ENG15
122,52 
Įprasta kaina: 144,14 
-15% su kodu: ENG15
Kupono kodas: ENG15
Akcija baigiasi: 2025-03-03
-15% su kodu: ENG15
2025-02-28 144.1400 InStock
Nemokamas pristatymas į paštomatus per 11-15 darbo dienų užsakymams nuo 20,00 

Knygos aprašymas

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Informacija

Autorius: Peter Turchin
Leidėjas: Princeton University Press
Išleidimo metai: 2003
Knygos puslapių skaičius: 260
ISBN-10: 0691116695
ISBN-13: 9780691116693
Formatas: 240 x 161 x 19 mm. Knyga kietu viršeliu
Kalba: Anglų

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