Demographic Change in Germany: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences

Just as one might be inclined to thinkthat every thing about demographic change has been already said and heard, a new dimension opens up. In fact, this is what makes the topic so fascinating. There is nothing trivial any longer about children, families, age, and care. Europe is undergoing profound demo graphic change. Each generation of children is quantitatively smaller than that of their parents; the propor tion of children and adolescents among the population is becoming smaller and smaller, while that of the elde rlyi s growing inexorably. Fewer and fewer people are marrying; more and more marriages are failing. Manyar eas of our society are affected by this; just think about the challenges faced by the social security systems as a result of demographic ageing. Politi cians and society are forced to adju st todem ographic change. Many people in Europe are concerned about these changes and are looking to politicians and researchers for solutions. Predictions are never easy, especially not about the future. Demographic indicators are among the safest guidelines into the unknown. Children un born today will certainly not contribute to social systems during the next years and will not pay back debt accumulated by previous generations. Not many politicians dare to negate the fact that this is about the future of our society. The media have contributed heavily to a general feeling that some thing has to be done. However, what exactly shouldbe done is widely dis puted.