Applied Intelligent Systems: New Directions

Humans have always been hopeless at predicting the future¿most people now generally agree that the margin of viability in prophecy appears to be 1 ten years. Even sophisticated research endeavours in this arena tend to go 2 off the rails after a decade or so. The computer industry has been particularly prone to bold (and often way off the mark) predictions, for example: ¿I think there is a world market for maybe five computers¿ Thomas J. Watson, IBM Chairman (1943), ¿I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won¿t last out the year¿ Prentice Hall Editor (1957), ¿There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home¿ Ken Olsen, founder of DEC (1977) and ¿640K ought to be enough for anybody¿ Bill Gates, CEO Microsoft (1981). 3 The field of Artificial Intelligence ¿ right from its inception ¿ has been particularly plagued by ¿bold prediction syndrome¿, and often by leading practitioners who should know better. AI has received a lot of bad press 4 over the decades, and a lot of it deservedly so. How often have we groaned in despair at the latest ¿by the year-20xx, we will all have¿(insert your own particular ¿hobby horse¿ here ¿ e. g.