An Operational Analysis for Air Force 2025: An Application of Value-Focused Thinking to Future Air and Space Capabilities

MOTIVATION In a world grappling with the complexities of rapidly evolving security threats, understanding the future of warfare is paramount. This document, "An Operational Analysis for Air Force 2025: An Application of Value-Focused Thinking to Future Air and Space Capabilities," serves as a vital roadmap, guiding readers through the intricate landscape of air and space power in the coming decades. The document delves into the heart of this challenge, meticulously evaluating a vast array of future system concepts designed to maintain US air and space dominance. It provides a framework, Foundations 2025, for assessing the operational utility of these concepts within six plausible alternate futures, each presenting distinct political, technological, and social challenges. The analysis uniquely identifies high-leverage technologies crucial for realizing these dominant systems, technologies like data fusion, power systems, and micromechanical devices, many of which have implications extending far beyond the military realm. "An Operational Analysis for Air Force 2025" is a must-read for anyone invested in understanding the future of warfare, from researchers and practitioners to policymakers and the general public. The document provides a captivating glimpse into cutting-edge military technology, pushing the boundaries of conventional thought and inspiring a deeper understanding of the evolving dynamics of air and space power. The insights offered within its pages will empower readers to engage in informed discussions on crucial defense issues and appreciate the immense potential these future systems hold for shaping the security landscape of the 21st century. ABSTRACT This research paper reports on an operational analysis conducted to evaluate the operational utility of future air and space system concepts proposed in the Air Force 2025 study. A bottoms-up value model, Foundations 2025, was developed that reflects the values of the Air Force 2025 study participants. Foundations 2025 is unique because it prioritizes a large number of systems and is cast 30 years into thefuture. Analysis using Foundations 2025 suggests that awareness and space control will be critical contributors to air and space dominance in the future. Furthermore, high leverage technologies identified by the analysis include data fusion, power systems, micromechanical devices, advanced materials, high-energy propellants, and high-performance computing. This study evaluated 43 future air and space system concepts to identify those offering the greatest potential to enhance US air and space dominance in the year 2025 and beyond. A value model, Foundations 2025, was developed for this assessment. The study also analyzed the technologies required to enable these systems, explicitly taking into account both the importance of the technologies to those systems and the value of the systems to air and space operations. The top five systems were Global Information Management System, Sanctuary Base, Global Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting System, Global Area Strike System, and Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicle. Six high leverage technologies were identified: Data Fusion, Power Systems, Micromechanical Devices, Advanced Materials, High Energy Propellants, and High Performance Computing. The study concludes that future air and space forces will derive significant advantage from improved awareness and control of space.